By dint of a dash of luck and a quantum of good management, the five-million strong island nation of Aoteaora New Zealand, wedged between the continents of Antarctica and Australia, has to date come through the COVID crisis largely unscathed. There have been 25 deaths – most in aged care residences – about 2,500 recorded cases of the disease, 75% in quarantine at the border, a national and a regional lockdown, and a few isolated outbreaks. But otherwise, at the time of writing, life is back to “normal” with a typical Antipodean summer break, in-person sporting and cultural events, and the economy close to pre-COVID levels. Borders, however, are closed to most non-nationals, and two major export industries – international tourism and overseas tertiary students – are for the time being on pause.
As a health sociologist, what observations can one make?
The infectious diseases are back! When I first arrived at the Medical School in the mid-1970s we were all certain that the infectious diseases were vanquished and now we had to grapple with “the diseases of affluence”, the NCDs. The arrival of HIV taught us different, and COVID reinforces that.
Non-pharmaceutical interventions are back! The most effective interventions prior to vaccination have been those involving changes in behaviour – distancing, hand washing, masking, isolation. All of a sudden the behavioural and social sciences have come into their own, for a time at least.
Leadership matters! New Zealand was ill-prepared for a pandemic, but a combination of outstanding bureaucratic and political leadership, combined with the institutional gift of a unitary state operating in a national health system, made the difference.
Health inequalities are not set in stone! New Zealand has an indigenous minority of 15%, it has the usual socio-economic disparities, 40% of its major city Auckland are foreign born, and yet COVID did not disproportionately strike the disadvantaged. The disease has come to the country courtesy of returning and travelling nationals predominantly white and relatively affluent, and these have been quarantined at the border. This, together with the first country-wide lockdown, prevented spread to other communities.
This is a disease of the digital not the analogue era! Communications moved to the virtual world. People worked from home. The health and educational systems ramped up their digital outreach. And social media played a major role in shaping patterns of behaviour, for both good and ill.
The health system underwent a once-in-a-century stress test! Death rates dropped over lockdown, hospital admissions and emergency department attendances dropped to half normal levels, family doctors closed because patient copayments disappeared, there was no winter flu season, all-cause mortality fell, and IT initiatives that had been hanging fire for years were suddenly implemented.
Experts and expertise are for a time in vogue! Yes, we had and still have conspiracy theories circulating, but the mass media have shown professionalism by and large, and talk of “post-truth” realities, “fake news” and the multiple realities of a post-modern world have been parked while we sit out and work our way through what in many respects is an existential crisis. The contrarians, opinion writers and commentators are already back, but “experts” are still listened to and expertise is valued.
One of the most remarkable outcomes is a nationwide rallying in the recent general election behind the ruling Labour Party, which achieved 50% popular support in our proportional representation system, comparable to levels reached in the 1930s. But it is unclear whether that rally will translate into a “New Deal”-style transformative move on a range of pressing issues such as climate change and energy, poverty and inequality, economic reset, and affordable housing. The roads are full again, house prices are soaring, the primary sector continues to earn our keep, and in many respects the prospects after effective vaccination are for a return to “business as usual”- not just in social life, not just in the economy, but in the health ecosystem too.